Wszystkie
Poland Macro Weekly: Unemployment at the bottom and inflation plateau
Unemployment rate in June was the lowest on record (4.9%) and, as the domestic labour supply is set to shrink, will stay low for longer.
Poland Macro Weekly: Slowdown just ahead
Monthly data for 2q22 confirm that the slowdown in economic growth is just ahead. The y/y GDP dynamics were still strong, but the carry-over effect masks the likely GDP decline in q/q terms.
Poland Macro Weekly: Turning point?
New NBP projection shows a significant deterioration in GDP growth outlook for 2023-2024, which implies CPI inflation returns to the target range in 2024, following double-digit consumer prices growth in 2022-2023.
Puls Konsumenta: Co robimy z oszczędnościami? Coraz chętniej spłacamy kredyty
Od połowy 2020 silnie rośnie skala spłat kredytów mieszkaniowych. Istotnym czynnikiem jest rosnąca różnica między oprocentowaniem kredytów i depozytów. Gospodarstwa domowe optymalizują strukturę swoich aktywów i pasywów, zamieniając nisko dochodowe depozyty i gotówkę na zmniejszenie obciążeń związanych z obsługą kredytów.
Poland Macro Weekly: Inflation vs recession dillema
Facing elevated inflation and most likely incoming recession, the Monetary Policy Council, in line with our expectations, raised interest rates “only” by 50 bp. A cautious approach adopted by the MPC, in our opinion, increases the probability that the tightening cycle might be concluded in September by delivering one more hike by 50 bp.
Poland Macro Weekly: NBP rate hikes coming to an end
As inflation is nearing a peak and the economic growth outlook is getting grimmer (to be confirmed in fresh NBP projection), the MPC is likely to end the tightening cycle soon. We assume two more rate hikes of 50bps each in July and September, taking the the NBP reference rate to 7.00%.