Wszystkie
Poland Macro Weekly: It’s payback time
In 2q22 GDP grew by 5.3% y/y, but on quarterly basis it dropped by 2.3% (seas.adj.), which was the third largest drop since 1995. The high pace of inventories build-up, which has started in 2q21, most likely abruptly slowed in 2q22 marking the beginning of the normalization period. As we have already warned in early June, the high GDP growth in early 2022 was partly ‘borrowed’ from the future what means it’s payback time now.
Poland Macro Weekly: Inflation seems to be losing steam
CPI inflation in July rose to 15.6% y/y but in m/m terms was the weakest since August 2021. Inflationary trends seem to be losing steam and MPC seems to be losing arguments in favour of further hikes.
Poland Macro Weekly: Unemployment at the bottom and inflation plateau
Unemployment rate in June was the lowest on record (4.9%) and, as the domestic labour supply is set to shrink, will stay low for longer.
Poland Macro Weekly: Slowdown just ahead
Monthly data for 2q22 confirm that the slowdown in economic growth is just ahead. The y/y GDP dynamics were still strong, but the carry-over effect masks the likely GDP decline in q/q terms.
Poland Macro Weekly: Turning point?
New NBP projection shows a significant deterioration in GDP growth outlook for 2023-2024, which implies CPI inflation returns to the target range in 2024, following double-digit consumer prices growth in 2022-2023.
Puls Konsumenta: Co robimy z oszczędnościami? Coraz chętniej spłacamy kredyty
Od połowy 2020 silnie rośnie skala spłat kredytów mieszkaniowych. Istotnym czynnikiem jest rosnąca różnica między oprocentowaniem kredytów i depozytów. Gospodarstwa domowe optymalizują strukturę swoich aktywów i pasywów, zamieniając nisko dochodowe depozyty i gotówkę na zmniejszenie obciążeń związanych z obsługą kredytów.