TOP MACRO THEME(S):

  • GDP growth in 4q22 heading south: Output and retail sales figures for December were a mixed bag and confirmed our estimate that GDP growth in 4q22 was 0.9% y/y (vs 3.6% y/y in 3q22), as private consumption remained subdued, fixed investments were at most moderate while exports revived.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

  • PPI inflation declined in December, the fourth consecutive month (20.4% y/y vs 21.1% y/y in November). Core HICP (excl. services) inched down in December confirming the disinflationary signals in the core PPI.
  • Money (M3) supply growth slowed in December (5.4% y/y), with household lending (both consumer and mortgages) still in the red.
  • Unemployment rate inched up in December, in line with seasonal pattern, to 5.2%, hovering near all-time lows. Declining labour demand has been manifested in falling number of job offers while the data on planned layoffs show little sign of a major deterioration in labour market conditions.
  • Fiscal (ESA) deficit in 3q22 has been confirmed at 2.3% of GDP (4q rolling). That said, despite a war-effort pressures, Poland’s fiscal balance excl. outlays on new infrastructure hovered near zero, much better than among CEE peers and average in the EU.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

  • Manufacturing PMI in January most likely moved higher, in line with German and Eurozone counterparts.
  • GDP growth in 2022 hit 4.5% on positive carry-over effects despite waning growth momentum (with q/q sa growth rate in 4q22 below zero, on our estimates).

NUMBER OF THE WEEK:

  • 76.2% - LtD ratio in the banking sector in Poland as of December 2022, the lowest since December 2002.
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