What else caught our eye:
- The MPC has not changed policy parameters (the reference rate at 0.10%, no modifications to the QE). In the post-meeting statement, the Council admitted that CPI inflation will remain elevated, but largely due to exogenous factors which are expected to fade away next year. According to Glapinski a discussion about rate hikes, in the most optimistic scenario, could be started in mid-2022 and a hike should be preceded by tapering. All in all, we stick to our assumption that NBP rates will remain stable even until the end of 2022. The NBP will be reluctant to start rate hikes before major central banks in the world (mainly the ECB) decide to tighten their monetary policy.
- The NBP Sentiment Survey confirmed that the situation of export oriented companies (supported by weak PLN and strong external demand) has significantly improved and is close to the pre-pandemic stance, while domestic-oriented corporates still struggle. The survey paints a pessimistic picture of investment activity in the private sector, with companies unfreezing pre-pandemic projects and reluctant to start new ones.
- Moody's confirmed Poland's rating at A2 with a stable outlook and stated that if the challenges of phasing out pandemic bailouts are successfully met, the chances of an upgrade will increase.
- Manufacturing PMI in April declined to 53.7pts (vs 54.3 in March), with supply side limitations in the foreground. As a result output was not able to meet growing industrial orders.
- The Supreme Court’s ruling on CHF loans states that: (1) after finding the loan contract invalid, claims of a bank and of a borrower should be treated separately; (2) the statute of limitation should be calculated starting from the moment, the loan contract is being found invalid. Another ruling of the Supreme Court’s on CHF loans (covering among others the issue of the remuneration for the use of capital) is scheduled for 11th.
The week ahead:
The key publication this week is flash GDP for 1q21 (PKOe: -1.0% y/y). Detailed CPI figures will shed more light on factors standing behind the inflation spike in April. Expected C/A surplus in March (PKOe: EUR 1.543 bn) was most likely accompanied by a two-digit exports growth rate.