Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 3Q 2025
Forecasts for 3Q 2025 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | 2Q 2025 | q/q | 3Q 2024 | y/y |
Net interest income | 6 067 | 6 076 | 6 126 | 5 943 | 6 153 | -1.3% | 5 727 | 6.1% |
Net fee and commission income | 1 311 | 1 311 | 1 340 | 1 290 | 1 277 | 2.7% | 1 300 | 0.9% |
Total Revenues | 7 706 | 7 713 | 7 762 | 7 656 | 7 684 | 0.4% | 7 316 | 5.4% |
Operating expenses | 2 248 | 2 239 | 2 349 | 2 194 | 2 204 | 1.6% | 2 071 | 8.1% |
Net provisions | 390 | 393 | 444 | 350 | 359 | 9.4% | 334 | 17.7% |
FX mortgage legal risk provisions | 1 139 | 1 150 | 1 150 | 1 000 | 1 249 | -7.9% | 994 | 15.8% |
Pre - tax profit | 3 625 | 3 602 | 3 897 | 3 479 | 3 556 | 1.3% | 3 643 | -1.1% |
Income tax | 895 | 895 | 1 003 | 850 | 895 | 0.0% | 1 179 | -24.1% |
Net profit | 2 727 | 2 730 | 2 894 | 2 609 | 2 661 | 2.6% | 2 463 | 10.8% |
PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 29.10.2025, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous Research, Bank of America ML, Barclays, Citi Securities, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Erste Securities, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Oddo BHF, Santander Securities, Trigon Securities, UBS, WOOD & Co.
Current recommendations for PKO Bank Polski
| Type of recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform) | 8 | 61.54% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform) | 5 | 38.46% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Total | 13 | 100% |
Recommendation issued in the period: 19.03.2025 to 3.09.2025
Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 87.2 PLN
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2025
| Forecasts for year 2025 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum |
| Net interest income | 24 110 | 24 174 | 24 744 | 23 520 |
| Net fee and commission income | 5 310 | 5 219 | 5 894 | 5 124 |
| Total income items | 30 646 | 30 583 | 31 223 | 29 925 |
| Administrative expenses | 9 454 | 9 438 | 9 948 | 9 136 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | 1 658 | 1 740 | 1 876 | 1 116 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | 3 881 | 4 069 | 4 750 | 2 280 |
| Profit before income tax | 14 415 | 14 362 | 15 795 | 13 198 |
| Net profit | 10 583 | 10 506 | 11 765 | 9 080 |
Based on 13 forecasts issued in the period: from 19.03.2025 to 3.09.2025
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2026
| Forecasts for year 2026 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum |
| Net interest income | 23 791 | 23 590 | 25 378 | 22 343 |
| Net fee and commission income | 5 580 | 5 572 | 6 025 | 5 262 |
| Total income items | 30 608 | 30 505 | 32 192 | 29 600 |
| Administrative expenses | 10 086 | 10 140 | 10 402 | 9 457 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | 1 982 | 1 980 | 2 464 | 1 528 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | 996 | 725 | 3 000 | 0 |
| Profit before income tax | 16 257 | 16 275 | 17 363 | 14 628 |
| Net profit | 12 030 | 12 397 | 13 816 | 9 407 |
Based on 13 forecasts issued in the period: from 19.03.2025 to 3.09.2025
Main macroeconomic indicators and banking sector outlook
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025F | 2026F | ||
| GDP | % y/y | 5.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | -2.0 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Consumption | % y/y | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.3 | -3.4 | 6.2 | 5.0 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Investments | % y/y | 1.8 | 13.7 | 7.5 | -3.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 12.7 | -2.2 | 8.7 | 8.9 |
| Public sector balance1) | % GDP | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -6.9 | -1.7 | -3.4 | -5.3 | -6.6 | -6.4 | -6.1 |
| Public debt1) | % GDP | 50.4 | 48.2 | 45.2 | 56.6 | 53.0 | 48.8 | 49.7 | 55.3 | 59.2 | 63.4 |
| CPI inflation | % | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| LFS unemployment rate | % eop | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| NBP reference rate | % eop | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 4.75 | 4.00 |
| WIBOR 3M | % eop | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 2.54 | 7.02 | 5.88 | 5.84 | 4.80 | 4.01 |
| EUR/PLN | PLN eop | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.69 | 4.35 | 4.27 | 4.18 | 4.20 |
| USD/PLN | PLN eop | 3.48 | 3.76 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 4.06 | 4.40 | 3.94 | 4.10 | 3.48 | 3.47 |
| Deposits - total2) | % | 5.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 |
| Deposits - private individuals2) | % | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 7.2 |
| Deposits - institutional entities2) | % | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 21.0 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 5.5 |
| Loans - total2) | % | 6.2 | 6.0 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 8.6 |
| Loans - residential mortgages2) | % | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.6 | -4.0 | -2.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 8.8 |
| Loans - consumer2) | % | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -3.3 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| Loans - institutional entities2) | % | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 8.5 |
1) ESA2010
2) FX-adjusted growth rate
Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (13.08.2025)
| Mikhail Butkov Goldman Sachs United Arab Emirates - Dubai tel. +971 437 63 564 mikhail.butkov@gs.com | Michał Fidelus | Mehmet Sevim |
Cihan Saraoglu | Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska WOOD & Company Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 222 15 48 Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com | Gabor Kemeny Autonomous Research LLP Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7776 3448 gkemeny@autonomous.com |
| Michał Konarski mBanku S.A. Brokerage Office Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 438 24 05 Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl | Łukasz Jańczak Erste Securities Polska S.A. Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 257 57 54 Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com | Maciej Marcinowski Trigon Brokerage Office Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 433 83 75 Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl |
| Marcin Materna Millennium Brokerage Office Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 598 26 82 Marcin.Materna@bankmillennium.pl | Simon Nellis Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7986 4012 Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com | Kamil Stolarski Santander Brokerage Poland Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 81 00 Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl |
| Michał Potyra UBS Investment Bank Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 525 84 30 Michal.Potyra@ubs.com | Andrzej Powierża Bank Handlowy S.A. (Citigroup) Brokerage Office Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 690 35 66 Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com | David Taranto |
| Jovan Sikimić Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Austria - Vienna tel. +43 (1) 717 075 601 Jovan.sikimic@rbinternational.com | Michał Sobolewski BOŚ S.A. Brokerage Office Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 504 33 06 M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl | Piotr Rychlicki Ipopema Securities S.A. Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 607 450 317 piotr.rychlicki@ipopema.pl |