Current recommendations for PKO Bank Polski
| Type of recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform) | 8 | 57.2% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform) | 5 | 35.7% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform) | 1 | 7.1% |
| Total | 14 | 100% |
Recommendation issued in the period: 06.05.2021 to 29.09.2021
Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 45.45 PLN
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2021
| Forecasts for year 2021 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Number of forecasts |
| Net interest income | 9 741 | 9 693 | 10 241 | 9 499 | 14 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 218 | 4 220 | 4 337 | 4 114 | 14 |
| Total income items | 14 653 | 14 615 | 14 994 | 14 322 | 14 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -1 439 | -1 371 | -1 940 | - 945 | 14 |
| Administrative expenses | -5 989 | -6 024 | -6 280 | -5 753 | 14 |
| Profit before income tax | 6 169 | 6 251 | 6 597 | 5 646 | 14 |
| Net profit | 4 588 | 4 559 | 4 959 | 4 188 | 14 |
Forecasts issued in the period: from 06.05.2021 to 29.09.2021
Consensus based on the forecasts that include the costs of legal risk and other impacts of the EGM's decision to enter into settlements with the foreign currency mortgage loan consumers.
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2022
| Forecasts for year 2022 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Number of forecasts |
| Net interest income | 10 685 | 10 702 | 11 617 | 9 770 | 14 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 369 | 4 388 | 4 587 | 4 215 | 14 |
| Total income items | 15 496 | 15 420 | 16 943 | 14 419 | 14 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -2 038 | -1 661 | -6 549 | -1 131 | 14 |
| Administrative expenses | -6 278 | -6 270 | -6 819 | -5 909 | 14 |
| Profit before income tax | 6 058 | 6 363 | 8 064 | 1 493 | 14 |
| Net profit | 4 356 | 4 698 | 5 971 | - 325 | 14 |
Forecasts issued in the period: from 06.05.2021 to 29.09.2021
Consensus based on the forecasts that include the costs of legal risk and other impacts of the EGM's decision to enter into settlements with the foreign currency mortgage loan consumers. A y/y decrease in the expected net profit in 2022 results from an increase in the costs of legal risk of FX mortgage loans expected by some analysts, which has a significant impact on the average and a smaller impact on the median.
Main macroeconomic indicators and banking sector outlook
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021F | 2022F | ||
| GDP | % y/y | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Consumption | % y/y | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Investments | % y/y | 6.1 | -8.2 | 4.0 | 9.4 | 6.1 | -9.6 | 2.7 | 7.2 |
| Public sector balance1) | % GDP | -2.6 | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -7.0 | -3.0 | -1.8 |
| Public debt1) | % GDP | 51.3 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 48.8 | 45.6 | 57.5 | 57.5 | 55.2 |
| CPI inflation | % | -0.9 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| LFS unemployment rate | % eop | 7.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| NBP reference rate | % eop | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| WIBOR 3M | % eop | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| EUR/PLN | PLN eop | 4.26 | 4.42 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.61 | 4.48 | 4.44 |
| USD/PLN | PLN eop | 3.90 | 4.18 | 3.48 | 3.76 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.73 | 3.70 |
| Deposits - total2) | % | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 |
| Deposits - private individuals2) | % | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Deposits - institutional entities2) | % | 4.2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 21.1 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| Loans - total2) | % | 5.1 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| Loans - residential mortgages2) | % | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| Loans - consumer2) | % | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 5.1 | 7.4 |
| Loans - institutional entities2) | % | 6.4 | 3.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
1) ESA2010
2) FX-adjusted growth rate
Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (24.08.2021)
Marta Czajkowska-Bałdyga | Michał Fidelus | Samuel Goodacre JP Morgan Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7134 6720 Samuel.Goodacre@jpmorgan.com |
| Alan Webborn Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7762 5575 Alan.Webborn@sgcib.com | Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska WOOD & Company Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 222 15 48 Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com | Gabor Kemeny Autonomous Research LLP Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7776 3448 gkemeny@autonomous.com |
| Michał Konarski Dom Maklerski mBanku SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 438 24 05 Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl | Jerzy Kosiński Pekao Investment Banking SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 29 67 Jerzy.Kosinski2@pekao.com.pl | Maciej Marcinowski Trigon Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 433 83 75 Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl |
| Marcin Materna Millennium Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 598 26 82 Marcin.Materna@millenniumdm.pl | Simon Nellis Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7986 4012 Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com | Andrzej Nowaczek HSBC Bank plc Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7991 6709 Andrzej.Nowaczek@hsbcib.com |
| Michał Potyra UBS Investment Bank Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 525 84 30 Michal.Potyra@ubs.com | Andrzej Powierża Dom Maklerski Banku Handlowego SA (Citigroup) Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 690 35 66 Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com | Mikhail Shlemov VTB Capital Russia - Moscow tel. +7 495 663 4701 Mikhail.Shlemov@vtbcapital.com |
| Jovan Sikimić Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Austria - Vienna tel. +43 (1) 717 075 601 Jovan.sikimic@rbinternational.com | Michał Sobolewski Dom Maklerski BOŚ SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 504 33 06 M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl | Kamil Stolarski Santander Brokerage Poland Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 81 00 Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl |
| Olga Veselova BofA Merrill Lynch Russia - Moscow tel. +7 495 662 6080 Olga.Veselova@bofa.com | Łukasz Jańczak Erste Securities Polska SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 257 57 54 Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com |