Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 4Q 2022
Forecasts for 4Q 2022 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | 3Q 2022 | q/q | 4Q 2021 | y/y |
Net interest income (ex. credit holidays and reimbursement for increased margins in 3Q 2022) | 4 091 | 4 097 | 4 161 | 3 990 | 3 975 | 3.1% | 2 669 | 53.5% |
Net fee and commission income | 1 244 | 1 248 | 1 268 | 1 200 | 1 281 | -2.6% | 1 181 | 5.7% |
Total Revenues | 5 442 | 5 448 | 5 552 | 5 316 | 2 313 | 135.5% | 3 960 | 37.6% |
Operating expenses (ex. IPS and Borrowers Support Fund in 3Q 2022) | 1 744 | 1 743 | 1 805 | 1 662 | 1 507 | 15.6% | 1 566 | 11.3% |
Net provisions (ex. CHF) | 432 | 414 | 536 | 364 | 470 | -11.9% | 530 | -21.8% |
FX mortgage legal risk provisions | 738 | 738 | 738 | 738 | 0 | n/a | 0 | n/a |
Pre - tax profit | 2 203 | 2 227 | 2 286 | 2 002 | -343 | n/a | 1 580 | 41.0% |
Income tax | 528 | 566 | 604 | 282 | -105 | n/a | 377 | 50.3% |
Net profit | 1 691 | 1 691 | 1 789 | 1 560 | -237 | n/a | 1 203 | 40.6% |
PKO Bank Polski consensus as at 03.03.2023, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous Research, Bank of America ML, Citi Research, Goldman Sachs, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Erste Securities, HSBC Bank, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Raiffeisen CB, Santander Securities, Societe Generale, Trigon Securities, UBS, WOOD & Company.
Current recommendations for PKO Bank Polski
| Type of recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform) | 7 | 43.75% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform) | 7 | 43.75% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform) | 2 | 12.50% |
| Total | 16 | 100% |
Recommendation issued in the period: 23.06.2022 to 21.11.2022
Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 33.9 PLN
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2022
| Forecasts for year 2022 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Number of forecasts |
| Net interest income* | 14 604 | 14 614 | 15 303 | 13 668 | 16 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 817 | 4 845 | 5 025 | 4 568 | 16 |
| Total income items | 16 704 | 16 783 | 18 293 | 15 247 | 16 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -1 676 | -1 707 | -1 974 | -1 360 | 16 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | -1 470 | -1 176 | -3 952 | 0 | 16 |
| Administrative expenses** | -6 696 | -6 644 | -7 233 | -6 354 | 16 |
| Profit before income tax | 4 504 | 4 485 | 6 750 | 1 852 | 16 |
| Net profit | 2 893 | 2 965 | 5 032 | 12 | 16 |
*Net interest income does not include cost of credit holidays (median PLN -3bn)
**Operating expenses do not include cost of borrowers’ support fund and protection system fund (IPS) (median PLN -1.2bn)
Forecasts issued in the period: from 23.06.2022 to 21.11.2022
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2023
| Forecasts for year 2023 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Number of forecasts |
| Net interest income | 14 595 | 14 585 | 15 711 | 12 652 | 16 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 941 | 4 906 | 5 559 | 4 657 | 16 |
| Total income items | 19 787 | 19 641 | 21 229 | 18 076 | 16 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -2 438 | -2 461 | -3 022 | -1 758 | 16 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | -1 624 | -200 | -3 952 | 0 | 16 |
| Administrative expenses | -7 349 | -7 182 | -8 102 | -6 856 | 16 |
| Profit before income tax | 7 923 | 8 036 | 9 342 | 6 075 | 16 |
| Net profit | 5 454 | 5 723 | 7 008 | 1 204 | 16 |
Forecasts issued in the period: from 23.06.2022 to 21.11.2022
Main macroeconomic indicators and banking sector outlook
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023F | ||
| GDP | % y/y | 3.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.5 | -2.0 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 0.1 |
| Consumption | % y/y | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | -3.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | -2.3 |
| Investments | % y/y | -8.2 | 4.0 | 12.6 | 6.2 | -2.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 |
| Public sector balance1) | % GDP | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -6.9 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -6.0 |
| Public debt1) | % GDP | 54.2 | 50.6 | 48.8 | 45.7 | 57.2 | 53.8 | 50.7 | 53.5 |
| CPI inflation | % | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 14.3 | 11.9 |
| LFS unemployment rate | % eop | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| NBP reference rate | % eop | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 6.25 |
| WIBOR 3M | % eop | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 2.54 | 7.02 | 6.45 |
| EUR/PLN | PLN eop | 4.42 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.69 | 4.62 |
| USD/PLN | PLN eop | 4.18 | 3.48 | 3.76 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 4.06 | 4.40 | 4.24 |
| Deposits - total2) | % | 8.9 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 |
| Deposits - private individuals2) | % | 9.1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| Deposits - institutional entities2) | % | 8.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 21.0 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 |
| Loans - total2) | % | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Loans - residential mortgages2) | % | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.6 | -4.0 | -4.5 |
| Loans - consumer2) | % | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -3.3 | 3.2 |
| Loans - institutional entities2) | % | 3.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
1) ESA2010
2) FX-adjusted growth rate
Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (15.03.2023)
Marta Czajkowska-Bałdyga | Michał Fidelus | Samuel Goodacre JP Morgan Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7134 6720 Samuel.Goodacre@jpmorgan.com |
| Alan Webborn Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7762 5575 Alan.Webborn@sgcib.com | Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska WOOD & Company Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 222 15 48 Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com | Gabor Kemeny Autonomous Research LLP Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7776 3448 gkemeny@autonomous.com |
| Michał Konarski Dom Maklerski mBanku SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 438 24 05 Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl | Łukasz Jańczak Erste Securities Polska SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 257 57 54 Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com | Maciej Marcinowski Trigon Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 433 83 75 Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl |
| Marcin Materna Millennium Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 598 26 82 Marcin.Materna@millenniumdm.pl | Simon Nellis Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7986 4012 Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com | Andrzej Nowaczek HSBC Bank plc Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7991 6709 Andrzej.Nowaczek@hsbcib.com |
| Michał Potyra UBS Investment Bank Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 525 84 30 Michal.Potyra@ubs.com | Andrzej Powierża Dom Maklerski Banku Handlowego SA (Citigroup) Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 690 35 66 Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com | Olga Veselova |
| Jovan Sikimić Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Austria - Vienna tel. +43 (1) 717 075 601 Jovan.sikimic@rbinternational.com | Michał Sobolewski Dom Maklerski BOŚ SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 504 33 06 M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl | Kamil Stolarski Santander Brokerage Poland Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 81 00 Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl |
| Mikhail Butkov Goldman Sachs Russia - Moscow tel. +7 495 645 4073 mikhail.butkov@gs.com | Nida Iqbal Siddiqi |