Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 4Q 2023
Forecasts for 4Q 2023 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | 3Q 2023 | q/q | 4Q 2022 | y/y |
Net interest income | 4 817 | 4 820 | 4 870 | 4 772 | 4 662 | 3.4% | 4 081 | 18.1% |
Net fee and commission income | 1 237 | 1 202 | 1 413 | 1 180 | 1 175 | 2.2% | 1 112 | 8.1% |
Total Revenues | 6 333 | 6 332 | 6 475 | 6 187 | 6 167 | 2.7% | 5 528 | 14.5% |
Operating expenses | 2 005 | 2 004 | 2 075 | 1 950 | 1 790 | 12.0% | 1 731 | 15.7% |
Net provisions (ex. CHF) | 398 | 411 | 450 | 300 | 286 | 44.0% | 401 | 2.5% |
FX mortgage legal risk provisions | 1 989 | 1 988 | 2 000 | 1 988 | 0 | - | 738 | >100% |
Pre - tax profit | 1 659 | 1 658 | 1 743 | 1 465 | 3 836 | -56.8% | 2 356 | -29.6% |
Income tax | 974 | 1 004 | 1 060 | 796 | 1 057 | -5.0% | 637 | 57.5% |
Net profit | 676 | 677 | 782 | 559 | 2 780 | -75.7% | 1 718 | -60.6% |
PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 29.02.2024, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous Research, Goldman Sachs, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Morgan Stanley, Erste Securities, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Raiffeisen CB, Santander Securities, Societe Generale, Trigon Securities, WOOD & Company.
Consensus calculated on the basis of the forecasts containing increased provisions for CHF legal risk.
Current recommendations for PKO Bank Polski
| Type of recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform) | 10 | 71.43% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform) | 3 | 21.43% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform) | 1 | 7.14% |
| Total | 14 | 100% |
Recommendation issued in the period: 6.10.2023 to 21.03.2024
Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 59.7 PLN
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2024
| Forecasts for year 2024 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum |
| Net interest income | 18 813 | 19 040 | 20 928 | 16 136 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 803 | 4 765 | 5 550 | 4 572 |
| Total income items | 24 254 | 24 566 | 26 329 | 21 754 |
| Administrative expenses | 8 293 | 8 288 | 9 091 | 7 526 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | 1 703 | 1 703 | 2 237 | 1 325 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | 1 962 | 2 000 | 4 000 | 688 |
| Profit before income tax | 11 156 | 11 635 | 13 082 | 8 691 |
| Net profit | 8 077 | 8 373 | 9 864 | 6 323 |
Based on 14 forecasts issued in the period: from 6.10.2023 to 21.03.2024
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2025
| Forecasts for year 2025 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum |
| Net interest income | 18 366 | 18 293 | 21 541 | 15 240 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 985 | 4 978 | 5 669 | 4 613 |
| Total income items | 24 410 | 24 225 | 27 904 | 21 275 |
| Administrative expenses | 8 931 | 8 867 | 10 125 | 7 821 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | 1 824 | 1 741 | 2 158 | 1 401 |
| Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages | 730 | 700 | 2 167 | 0 |
| Profit before income tax | 11 859 | 12 065 | 14 720 | 9 441 |
| Net profit | 8 419 | 8 599 | 11 163 | 3 030 |
Based on 14 forecasts issued in the period: from 6.10.2023 to 21.03.2024
Main macroeconomic indicators and banking sector outlook
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024F | ||
| GDP | % y/y | 3.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | -2.0 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 3.7 |
| Consumption | % y/y | 3.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | -3.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 3.6 |
| Investments | % y/y | -7.6 | 1.6 | 12.6 | 6.2 | -2.3 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 6.2 |
| Public sector balance1) | % GDP | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -6.9 | -1.8 | -3.7 | -5.9* | -5.6 |
| Public debt1) | % GDP | 54.5 | 50.8 | 48.7 | 45.7 | 57.2 | 53.6 | 49.3 | 50.3* | 53.3 |
| CPI inflation | % | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 14.4 | 11.5 | 3.7 |
| LFS unemployment rate | % eop | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| NBP reference rate | % eop | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 |
| WIBOR 3M | % eop | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 2.54 | 7.02 | 5.88 | 5.31 |
| EUR/PLN | PLN eop | 4.42 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.69 | 4.35 | 4.32 |
| USD/PLN | PLN eop | 4.18 | 3.48 | 3.76 | 3.79 | 3.73 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 3.94 | 3.82 |
| Deposits - total2) | % | 8.9 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 6.4 |
| Deposits - private individuals2) | % | 9.1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 7.1 |
| Deposits - institutional entities2) | % | 8.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 21.0 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.6 |
| Loans - total2) | % | 3.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6.7 |
| Loans - residential mortgages2) | % | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.6 | -4.0 | -2.6 | 8.4 |
| Loans - consumer2) | % | 7.0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -3.3 | 2.1 | 7.5 |
| Loans - institutional entities2) | % | 3.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 5.5 |
1) ESA2010
2) FX-adjusted growth rate
*forecast
Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (07.03.2024)
Marta Czajkowska-Bałdyga | Michał Fidelus | Samuel Goodacre JP Morgan Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7134 6720 Samuel.Goodacre@jpmorgan.com |
| Alan Webborn Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7762 5575 Alan.Webborn@sgcib.com | Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska WOOD & Company Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 222 15 48 Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com | Gabor Kemeny Autonomous Research LLP Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7776 3448 gkemeny@autonomous.com |
| Michał Konarski Dom Maklerski mBanku SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 438 24 05 Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl | Łukasz Jańczak Erste Securities Polska SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 257 57 54 Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com | Maciej Marcinowski Trigon Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 433 83 75 Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl |
| Marcin Materna Millennium Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 598 26 82 Marcin.Materna@millenniumdm.pl | Simon Nellis Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7986 4012 Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com | Nida Iqbal Siddiqi Morgan Stanley United Arab Emirates- Dubai tel. +71 4 709 7103 Nida.Iqbal.Siddiqi@morganstanley.com |
| Michał Potyra UBS Investment Bank Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 525 84 30 Michal.Potyra@ubs.com | Andrzej Powierża Dom Maklerski Banku Handlowego SA (Citigroup) Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 690 35 66 Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com | David Taranto |
| Jovan Sikimić Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Austria - Vienna tel. +43 (1) 717 075 601 Jovan.sikimic@rbinternational.com | Michał Sobolewski Dom Maklerski BOŚ SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 504 33 06 M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl | Kamil Stolarski Santander Brokerage Poland Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 81 00 Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl |
| Mikhail Butkov Goldman Sachs United Arab Emirates - Dubai tel. +971 437 63 564 mikhail.butkov@gs.com |
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