Share recommendations
Current recommendations for PKO Bank Polski
| Type of recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform) | 9 | 52.9% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform) | 6 | 35.3% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform) | 2 | 11.8% |
| Total | 17 | 100% |
Recommendation issued in the period: 12.11.2020 to 01.02.2021
Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 31.08 PLN
Quarterly consensus Q4 2020
Current market consensus for main lines of consolidated P&L account for PKO Bank Polski for Q4 2020
| Forecasts for Q4 2020 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Q3 2020 | q/q | Q4 2019 | y/y |
| Net interest income | 2 448 | 2 449 | 2 490 | 2 407 | 2 446 | 0.1% | 2 630 | -7.0% |
| Net fee and commission income | 1 021 | 1 022 | 1 057 | 1 002 | 987 | 3.4% | 972 | 5.1% |
| Total income items | 3 629 | 3 643 | 3 715 | 3 444 | 3 519 | 3.2% | 3 742 | -3.0% |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -1 007 | -1 000 | -710 | -1 235 | -827 | 21.9% | -786 | 28.2% |
| Administrative expenses | -1 442 | -1 425 | -1 391 | -1 594 | -1 359 | 6.1% | -1 524 | -5.3% |
| Net profit | 608 | 610 | 699 | 433 | 712 | -14.6% | 723 | -15.9% |
PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 10.02.2021 based on analyst forecasts from: Autonomous Research, Bank of America ML, Citi Research, BM BOŚ, BM Millennium, DM BDM, Goldman Sachs, Haitong Bank, HSBC Bank, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank BM, Pekao BM, Raiffeisen CB, Santander BM, Societe Generale, Trigon DM, UBS, VTB Capital, WOOD & Company and Erste Group
Annual consensus 2020-2021
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2020
| Forecasts for year 2020 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Number of forecasts |
| Net interest income | 10 124 | 10 125 | 10 178 | 10 079 | 17 |
| Net fee and commission income | 3 898 | 3 889 | 4 108 | 3 836 | 17 |
| Total income items | 14 163 | 14 157 | 14 487 | 13 998 | 17 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -2 935 | -2 976 | -2 107 | -3 319 | 17 |
| Administrative expenses | -6 032 | -6 010 | -5 758 | -6 347 | 17 |
| Profit before income tax | 4 103 | 4 091 | 4 501 | 3 816 | 17 |
| Net profit | 2 697 | 2 698 | 2 967 | 2 451 | 17 |
Forecasts issued in the period: from 12.11.2020 to 01.02.2021
Not older than 6 months since the date of the last update
Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2021
| Forecasts for year 2021 (PLN million) | Average | Median | Maximum | Minimum | Number of forecasts |
| Net interest income | 9 970 | 9 947 | 10 325 | 9 386 | 17 |
| Net fee and commission income | 4 000 | 4 010 | 4 386 | 3 783 | 17 |
| Total income items | 14 289 | 14 247 | 14 871 | 13 487 | 17 |
| Net impairment allowance and write-offs | -2 892 | -2 862 | -1 932 | -4 136 | 17 |
| Administrative expenses | -6 118 | -6 100 | -5 722 | -6 360 | 17 |
| Profit before income tax | 4 136 | 4 332 | 4 952 | 2 718 | 17 |
| Net profit | 2 814 | 2 917 | 3 575 | 1 572 | 17 |
Forecasts issued in the period: from 12.11.2020 to 01.02.2021
Not older than 6 months since the date of the last update
Bank's macroeconomic outlook
Main macroeconomic indicators and banking sector outlook
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020F | 2021F | 2022F | ||
| GDP | % y/y | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| Consumption | % y/y | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | -2.8 | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| Investments | % y/y | 6.1 | -8.2 | 4.0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | -7.8 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
| Public sector balance1) | % GDP | -2.7 | -2.2 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -9.2 | -3.4 | -1.8 |
| Public debt1) | % GDP | 51.3 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 48.6 | 45.7 | 59.7 | 58.1 | 56.4 |
| CPI inflation | % | -0.9 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| LFS unemployment rate | % eop | 7.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| NBP reference rate | % eop | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| WIBOR 3M | % eop | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| EUR/PLN | PLN eop | 4.26 | 4.42 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.61 | 4.45 | 4.35 |
| USD/PLN | PLN eop | 3.90 | 4.18 | 3.48 | 3.76 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.43 |
| Deposits - total2) | % | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 6.3 |
| Deposits - private individuals2) | % | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Deposits - institutional entities2) | % | 4.2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 21.4 | 3.6 | 6.6 |
| Loans - total2) | % | 5.1 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | -0.7 | 5.4 | 6.2 |
| Loans - residential mortgages2) | % | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.8 |
| Loans - consumer2) | % | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Loans - institutional entities2) | % | 6.4 | 3.3 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
1) ESA2010
2) FX-adjusted growth rate
Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (26.01.2021)
Analyst contact details
| Marta Czajkowska-Bałdyga Haitong Bank SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 347 40 48 Marta.Czajkowska-Baldyga@haitongib.com | Tomasz Duda | Michał Fidelus Dom Maklerski BDM SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 666 073 972 Michal.Fidelus@bdm.pl |
| Samuel Goodacre JP Morgan Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7134 6720 Samuel.Goodacre@jpmorgan.com | Łukasz Jańczak IPOPEMA Securities SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 236 92 30 Lukasz.Janczak@ipopema.pl | Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska WOOD & Company Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 222 15 48 Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com |
| Ivan Kachkovski Morgan Stanley Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7425 6714 Ivan.Kachkovski@morganstanley.com | Gabor Kemeny Autonomous Research LLP Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7776 3448 gkemeny@autonomous.com | Michał Konarski Dom Maklerski mBanku SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 438 24 05 Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl |
| Jerzy Kosiński Pekao Investment Banking SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 29 67 Jerzy.Kosinski2@pekao.com.pl | Maciej Marcinowski Trigon Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 433 83 75 Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl | Anna Marshall Goldman Sachs Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7552 8394 Anna.Marshall@gs.com |
| Marcin Materna Millennium Dom Maklerski Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 598 26 82 Marcin.Materna@millenniumdm.pl | Simon Nellis Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7986 4012 Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com | Andrzej Nowaczek HSBC Bank plc Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7991 6709 Andrzej.Nowaczek@hsbcib.com |
| Michał Potyra UBS Investment Bank Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 525 84 30 Michal.Potyra@ubs.com | Andrzej Powierża Dom Maklerski Banku Handlowego SA (Citigroup) Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 690 35 66 Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com | Mikhail Shlemov VTB Capital Russia - Moscow tel. +7 495 663 4701 Mikhail.Shlemov@vtbcapital.com |
| Jovan Sikimić Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Austria - Vienna tel. +43 (1) 515 20 184 Jovan.Sikimic@rcb.at | Michał Sobolewski Dom Maklerski BOŚ SA Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 504 33 06 M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl | Kamil Stolarski Santander Brokerage Poland Poland - Warsaw tel. +48 22 586 81 00 Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl |
| Olga Veselova BofA Merrill Lynch Russia - Moscow tel. +7 495 662 6080 Olga.Veselova@bofa.com | Alan Webborn Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking Great Britain - London tel. +44 20 7762 5575 Alan.Webborn@sgcib.com |