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Consensus & forecasts

  • Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 1Q 2026

    Forecasts for 1Q 2026 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum4Q 2025q/q1Q 2025y/y
    Net interest income 5 9335 9116 2175 8196 026-1.9%5 983-1.2%
    Net fee and commission income1 3421 3421 3861 2951 370-2.1%1 2527.2%
    Total Revenues7 5917 5707 9637 4577 4092.2%7 576-0.1%
    Operating expenses 2 7162 7412 7892 5562 4949.9%2 5208.8%
    Net provisions 363360444222388-7.2%417-13.7%
    FX mortgage legal risk provisions382388411250990-60.8%973-60.1%
    Pre - tax profit3 7973 7294 4873 5903 20516.3%3 38310.2%
    Income tax1 3491 3531 6451 009489>100%91448.0%
    Net profit2 4662 4272 8422 1792 715-10.6%2 469-1.7%

    PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 07.05.2026, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous Research, Bank of America ML, Barclays, Citi Securities, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Erste Securities, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Oddo BHF, Patria Finance, Santander Securities, Trigon Securities, UBS, WOOD & Co, Morgan Stanley.

  • Type of recommendationNumberShare
    Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform)1071.43%
    Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform)428.57%
    Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform)00.00%
    Total14100%

    Recommendation issued in the period: 05.12.2025 to 01.06.2026

    Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 104.4 PLN

  • Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2026

    Forecasts for year 2026 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum
    Net interest income24 37324 36224 79223 787
    Net fee and commission income5 5405 5195 6995 391
    Total income items31 19431 08232 32230 427
    Administrative expenses9 9329 90610 3389 617
    Net impairment allowance and write-offs1 7231 7512 1021 336
    Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages1 4981 4003 400200
    Profit before income tax16 60216 89618 58414 509
    Net profit10 58610 76412 3428 672

     Based on 16 forecasts issued in the period: from 05.12.2025 to 01.06.2026

    Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2027

    Forecasts for year 2027 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum
    Net interest income25 55325 75426 94223 566
    Net fee and commission income5 8105 7766 1715 479
    Total income items32 73032 67434 18230 633
    Administrative expenses10 49710 53910 87710 040
    Net impairment allowance and write-offs2 1072 1612 5091 519
    Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages21107000
    Profit before income tax18 45818 54119 55817 349
    Net profit12 89312 97013 71811 450

    Based on 16 forecasts issued in the period: from 05.12.2025 to 01.06.2026

  •   2017201820192020202120222023202420252026F
    GDP% y/y5.26.24.6-2.06.95.30.23.23.63.5
    Consumption% y/y6.14.63.3-3.46.25.0-0.32.93.73.2
    Investments% y/y1.813.77.5-3.01.51.712.70.44.410.8
    Public sector balance1)% GDP-1.5-0.2-0.7-6.9-1.7-3.4-5.2-6.4-7.3-6.9
    Public debt1)% GDP50.448.245.256.653.048.849.554.859.766.6
    CPI inflation%2.01.72.33.45.114.411.43.63.63.3
    LFS unemployment rate% eop4.93.93.23.13.42.92.82.93.13.1
    NBP reference rate% eop1.501.501.500.101.756.755.755.754.003.75
    WIBOR 3M% eop1.721.721.710.212.547.025.885.843.993.82
    EUR/PLNPLN eop4.174.304.264.614.604.694.354.274.234.25
    USD/PLN PLN eop3.483.763.803.754.064.403.944.103.603.57
    Deposits - total2)%5.78.28.213.210.85.410.69.89.85.8
    Deposits - private individuals2)%4.89.39.37.65.94.012.410.79.07.1
    Deposits - institutional entities2)%6.96.66.723.017.07.18.68.710.74.1
    Loans - total2)%6.25.94.7-0.84.80.91.25.35.56.9
    Loans - residential mortgages2)%2.54.05.34.96.5-4.1-2.63.73.56.5
    Loans - consumer2)%7.98.48.2-2.21.6-3.32.15.98.37.5
    Loans - institutional entities2)%8.46.53.3-4.34.46.03.66.16.07.0

    1) ESA2010
    2) FX-adjusted growth rate

    Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (14.05.2026)

  • Kazim Andac
    Goldman Sachs International
    United Arab Emirates - Dubai

    tel. +971 4 214 9958

    kazim.andac@gs.com    		Michał Fidelus
    Bank Polska Kasa Opieki SA, Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw


    Michal.Fidelus@pekao.com.pl    		Mehmet Sevim
    JP Morgan
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 207 134 5687 

    mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com
    Cihan Saraoglu
    HSBC
    Turkey - Istambul

    tel. +90 212 376 46 20
    cihansaraoglu@hsbc.com.tr    		Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska
    WOOD & Company
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 222 15 48
    Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com    		Gabor Kemeny
    Autonomous Research LLP
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7776 3448
    gkemeny@autonomous.com
    Michał Konarski
    mBanku S.A. Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 438 24 05
    Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl    		Łukasz Jańczak
    Erste Securities Polska S.A.
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 257 57 54
    Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com    		Maciej Marcinowski
    Trigon Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 433 83 75
    Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl
    Marcin Materna
    Millennium Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 598 26 82
    Marcin.Materna@bankmillennium.pl    		Simon Nellis
    Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7986 4012
    Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com    		Kamil Stolarski
    Santander Brokerage Poland
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 586 81 00
    Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl
    Michał Potyra
    UBS Investment Bank
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 525 84 30
    Michal.Potyra@ubs.com    		Andrzej Powierża
    Bank Handlowy S.A. (Citigroup) Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 690 35 66
    Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com    		David Taranto
    BofA Merrill Lynch
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7996 7510
    david.taranto@baml.com 
    Jovan Sikimić
    ODDO BHF
    Austria - Vienna

    tel. +43 (1) 25 3121 6603
    Jovan.sikimic@oddo-bhf.com    		Michał Sobolewski
    BOŚ S.A. Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 504 33 06
    M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl    		Piotr Rychlicki
    Ipopema Securities S.A. 
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 607 450 317
    piotr.rychlicki@ipopema.pl
                                 Jindrich Litner                              Patria Finance

                      tel. +420 774 121 295                      Litner@patria.cz    		 Gulnara Saitkulova
    Morgan Stanley
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7677 0313       Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.com    		Krishnendra Dubey
    Barclays
    Mumbai - India

    tel. +91 22 61751719 
    krishnendra.dubey@barclays.com