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Consensus & forecasts

  • Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 2Q 2026

    Forecasts for 2Q 2026 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum1Q 2026q/q2Q 2025y/y
    Net interest income 5 9495 9536 0295 9025 9530.0%6 153-3.3%
    Net fee and commission income1 3891 3861 4101 3691 3780.6%1 2768.6%
    Total Revenues7 5767 5767 7337 3957 642-0.9%7 684-1.4%
    Operating expenses 2 2782 2772 3582 1972 626-13.3%2 2043.3%
    Net provisions 40840556725035115.1%35912.7%
    FX mortgage legal risk provisions340297647297388-23.5%1 249-76.2%
    Pre - tax profit4 2024 2504 3274 0193 9637.2%3 55619.5%
    Income tax1 5181 5011 6791 4401 4434.0%89567.8%
    Net profit2 6932 7032 8642 5262 5227.2%2 6621.6%

    PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 06.08.2026, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous Research, Bank of America ML, Barclays, Citi Securities, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Erste Securities, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Oddo BHF, Patria Finance, Trigon Securities, UBS, WOOD & Co, Morgan Stanley.

  • Type of recommendationNumberShare
    Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform)758.33%
    Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform)541.67%
    Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform)00.00%
    Total12100%

    Recommendation issued in the period: 01.04.2025 to 18.08.2026

    Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 114.1 PLN

  • Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2026

    Forecasts for year 2026 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum
    Net interest income24 44124 45425 10023 787
    Net fee and commission income5 5795 5905 6925 391
    Total income items31 10331 17331 50830 427
    Administrative expenses9 9079 88510 3389 676
    Net impairment allowance and write-offs1 6611 6822 1011 057
    Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages1 6601 4503 4001 085
    Profit before income tax16 50417 03617 69814 509
    Net profit10 51010 85611 1978 672

     Based on 16 forecasts issued in the period: from 01.04.2026 to 18.08.2026

    Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2027

    Forecasts for year 2027 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum
    Net interest income25 87125 94627 10624 447
    Net fee and commission income5 8535 8596 1985 479
    Total income items32 97633 01434 20731 457
    Administrative expenses10 50410 52610 71310 040
    Net impairment allowance and write-offs2 0482 1022 4721 551
    Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages3654087500
    Profit before income tax18 66218 67719 80117 076
    Net profit13 09813 11113 78511 928

    Based on 16 forecasts issued in the period: from 01.04.2026 to 18.08.2026

  •   201820192020202120222023202420252026F2027F
    GDP% y/y6.24.6-2.06.95.30.23.23.63.52.8
    Consumption% y/y4.63.3-3.46.25.0-0.32.93.73.03.0
    Investments% y/y13.77.5-3.01.51.712.70.44.410.01.7
    Public sector balance1)% GDP-0.2-0.7-6.9-1.7-3.4-5.2-6.4-7.3-7.1-6.7
    Public debt1)% GDP48.245.256.653.048.849.554.859.765.971.3
    CPI inflation%1.72.33.45.114.411.43.63.63.23.0
    LFS unemployment rate% eop3.93.23.13.42.92.82.93.13.13.0
    NBP reference rate% eop1.501.500.101.756.755.755.754.003.753.00
    WIBOR 3M% eop1.721.710.212.547.025.885.843.993.823.05
    EUR/PLNPLN eop4.304.264.614.604.694.354.274.234.254.30
    USD/PLN PLN eop3.763.803.754.064.403.944.103.603.663.68
    Deposits - total2)%8.28.213.210.85.410.69.89.87.76.1
    Deposits - private individuals2)%9.39.37.65.94.012.410.79.09.18.2
    Deposits - institutional entities2)%6.66.723.017.07.18.68.710.76.23.6
    Loans - total2)%5.94.7-0.84.80.91.25.35.55.56.9
    Loans - residential mortgages2)%4.05.34.96.5-4.1-2.63.73.56.56.4
    Loans - consumer2)%8.48.2-2.21.6-3.32.15.98.39.88.3
    Loans - institutional entities2)%6.53.3-4.34.46.03.66.16.03.76.8

    1) ESA2010
    2) FX-adjusted growth rate

    Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (13.08.2026), deposit and credit volume forecasts based on the Financial Plan for 2026. Effective January 2026, a methodological change removed BGK pass-through funds (c. PLN 60bn) from reported loan volumes.

  • Kazim Andac
    Goldman Sachs International
    United Arab Emirates - Dubai

    tel. +971 4 214 9958

    kazim.andac@gs.com    		Michał Fidelus
    Bank Polska Kasa Opieki SA, Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw


    Michal.Fidelus@pekao.com.pl    		Mehmet Sevim
    JP Morgan
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 207 134 5687 

    mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com
    Cihan Saraoglu
    HSBC
    Turkey - Istambul

    tel. +90 212 376 46 20
    cihansaraoglu@hsbc.com.tr    		Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska
    WOOD & Company
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 222 15 48
    Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com    		Gabor Kemeny
    Autonomous Research LLP
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7776 3448
    gkemeny@autonomous.com
    Michał Konarski
    mBanku S.A. Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 438 24 05
    Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl    		Łukasz Jańczak
    Erste Securities Polska S.A.
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 257 57 54
    Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com    		Maciej Marcinowski
    Trigon Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 433 83 75
    Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl
    Marcin Materna
    Millennium Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 598 26 82
    Marcin.Materna@bankmillennium.pl    		Simon Nellis
    Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7986 4012
    Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com    		Krishnendra Dubey
    Barclays
    Mumbai - India

    tel. +91 22 61751719 
    krishnendra.dubey@barclays.com  
    Michał Potyra
    UBS Investment Bank
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 525 84 30
    Michal.Potyra@ubs.com    		Andrzej Powierża
    Bank Handlowy S.A. (Citigroup) Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 690 35 66
    Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com    		David Taranto
    BofA Merrill Lynch
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7996 7510
    david.taranto@baml.com 
    Jovan Sikimić
    ODDO BHF
    Austria - Vienna

    tel. +43 (1) 25 3121 6603
    Jovan.sikimic@oddo-bhf.com    		Michał Sobolewski
    BOŚ S.A. Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 504 33 06
    M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl    		Piotr Rychlicki
    Ipopema Securities S.A. 
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 607 450 317
    piotr.rychlicki@ipopema.pl
                                 Jindrich Litner                              Patria Finance

                      tel. +420 774 121 295                      Litner@patria.cz    		 Gulnara Saitkulova
    Morgan Stanley
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7677 0313       Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.com