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Consensus & forecasts

  • Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski for 4Q 2025

    Forecasts for 4Q 2025 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum3Q 2025q/q4Q 2024y/y
    Net interest income 5 9735 9856 0265 8596 061-1.3%6 179-3.1%
    Net fee and commission income1 3391 3251 4501 3001 346-1.5%1 2634.9%
    Total Revenues7 4657 4367 7237 2537 702-3.5%7 857-5.4%
    Operating expenses 2 5042 5012 5992 4382 22112.6%2 27410.0%
    Net provisions 39839850730433020.5%3950.9%
    FX mortgage legal risk provisions9969901 0559901 154-14.2%1 585-37.5%
    Pre - tax profit3 2853 2323 7443 0193 705-12.8%3 295-1.9%
    Income tax700666956523867-23.2%850-21.6%
    Net profit2 5402 5302 7172 3972 837-10.8%2 4463.4%

    PKO Bank Polski consensus as of 05.03.2026, based on forecasts of analysts from: Autonomous Research, Bank of America ML, Barclays, Citi Securities, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BOŚ Securities, Millennium Securities, Erste Securities, Ipopema Securities, JP Morgan, mBank Securities, Pekao Securities, Oddo BHF, Patria Finance, Santander Securities, Trigon Securities, UBS, WOOD & Co.

  • Type of recommendationNumberShare
    Buy (Accumulate, Overweight, Outperform)1381.25%
    Hold (Neutral, Equal weight, Market perform)318.75%
    Sell (Reduce, Underweight, Underperform)00.00%
    Total16100%

    Recommendation issued in the period: 10.09.2025 to 6.02.2026
    Average target price for PKO Bank Polski shares: 92.3 PLN

  • Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2025

    Forecasts for year 2025 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum
    Net interest income24 15624 18024 27023 844
    Net fee and commission income5 2685 2145 8715 115
    Total income items30 58130 50831 24330 196
    Administrative expenses9 3979 4079 8019 181
    Net impairment allowance and write-offs1 4951 5181 8261 016
    Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages4 5284 6055 0003 972
    Profit before income tax13 87813 78614 41613 445
    Net profit10 50310 49311 1079 789

     Based on 16 forecasts issued in the period: from 10.09.2025 to 6.02.2026

     

    Current market consensus for the main components of consolidated net profit of PKO Bank Polski S.A. for 2026

    Forecasts for year 2026 (PLN million)AverageMedianMaximumMinimum
    Net interest income23 94824 07224 73322 285
    Net fee and commission income5 5235 4915 9895 312
    Total income items30 73530 69732 32229 422
    Administrative expenses9 9549 99710 2789 303
    Net impairment allowance and write-offs1 8141 8662 1021 336
    Cost of credit risk of FX mortgages1 2471 1893 6000
    Profit before income tax16 29616 24518 58414 252
    Net profit10 42010 48612 3428 685

    Based on 16 forecasts issued in the period: from 10.09.2025 to 6.02.2026

  •   2017201820192020202120222023202420252026F
    GDP% y/y5.26.24.6-2.06.95.30.23.03.63.7
    Consumption% y/y6.14.63.3-3.46.25.0-0.32.93.73.4
    Investments% y/y1.813.77.5-3.01.51.712.7-0.94.312.0
    Public sector balance1)% GDP-1.5-0.2-0.7-6.9-1.7-3.4-5.2-6.5-6.9-6.5
    Public debt1)% GDP50.448.245.256.653.048.849.555.159.666.3
    CPI inflation%2.01.72.33.45.114.411.43.63.62.8
    LFS unemployment rate% eop4.93.93.23.13.42.92.82.93.13.1
    NBP reference rate% eop1.501.501.500.101.756.755.755.754.003.50
    WIBOR 3M% eop1.721.721.710.212.547.025.885.843.993.57
    EUR/PLNPLN eop4.174.304.264.614.604.694.354.274.234.26
    USD/PLN PLN eop3.483.763.803.754.064.403.944.103.603.61
    Deposits - total2)%5.78.28.213.210.85.410.69.89.85.8
    Deposits - private individuals2)%4.89.39.37.65.94.012.410.79.07.1
    Deposits - institutional entities2)%6.96.66.723.017.07.18.68.710.74.1
    Loans - total2)%6.25.94.7-0.84.80.91.25.35.56.9
    Loans - residential mortgages2)%2.54.05.34.96.5-4.1-2.63.73.56.5
    Loans - consumer2)%7.98.48.2-2.21.6-3.32.15.98.37.5
    Loans - institutional entities2)%8.46.53.3-4.34.46.03.66.16.07.0

    1) ESA2010
    2) FX-adjusted growth rate

    Source: Forecasts of PKO Bank Polski (12.03.2026)

  • Kazim Andac
    Goldman Sachs International
    United Arab Emirates - Dubai

    tel. +971 4 214 9958

    kazim.andac@gs.com    		Michał Fidelus
    Bank Polska Kasa Opieki SA, Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw


    Michal.Fidelus@pekao.com.pl    		Mehmet Sevim
    JP Morgan
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 207 134 5687 

    mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com
    Cihan Saraoglu
    HSBC
    Turkey - Istambul

    tel. +90 212 376 46 20
    cihansaraoglu@hsbc.com.tr    		Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska
    WOOD & Company
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 222 15 48
    Marta.Jezewska-Wasilewska@wood.com    		Gabor Kemeny
    Autonomous Research LLP
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7776 3448
    gkemeny@autonomous.com
    Michał Konarski
    mBanku S.A. Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 438 24 05
    Michal.Konarski@mdm.pl    		Łukasz Jańczak
    Erste Securities Polska S.A.
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 257 57 54
    Lukasz.Janczak@erstegroup.com    		Maciej Marcinowski
    Trigon Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 433 83 75
    Maciej.Marcinowski@trigon.pl
    Marcin Materna
    Millennium Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 598 26 82
    Marcin.Materna@bankmillennium.pl    		Simon Nellis
    Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7986 4012
    Simon.Nellis@citigroup.com    		Kamil Stolarski
    Santander Brokerage Poland
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 586 81 00
    Kamil.Stolarski@santander.pl
    Michał Potyra
    UBS Investment Bank
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 525 84 30
    Michal.Potyra@ubs.com    		Andrzej Powierża
    Bank Handlowy S.A. (Citigroup) Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 690 35 66
    Andrzej.Powierza@citi.com    		David Taranto
    BofA Merrill Lynch
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7996 7510
    david.taranto@baml.com 
    Jovan Sikimić
    Raiffeisen Centrobank AG
    Austria - Vienna

    tel. +43 (1) 717 075 601
    Jovan.sikimic@rbinternational.com    		Michał Sobolewski
    BOŚ S.A. Brokerage Office
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 22 504 33 06
    M.Sobolewski@bossa.pl    		Piotr Rychlicki
    Ipopema Securities S.A. 
    Poland - Warsaw

    tel. +48 607 450 317
    piotr.rychlicki@ipopema.pl
                                       Jindrich Litner                                     Patria Finance

                                tel. +420 774 121 295                             Litner@patria.cz    		 Gulnara Saitkulova
    Morgan Stanley
    Great Britain - London

    tel. +44 20 7677 0313       Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.com    		Krishnendra Dubey
    Barclays
    Mumbai - India

    tel. +91 22 61751719 
    krishnendra.dubey@barclays.com