What else caught our eye:
- CPI inflation in October has been confirmed at 6.8% y/y, fueled by increasing prices of energy, fuels, as well as supply-side shocks (visible eg. in prices of furniture and household appliances). Core inflation rose to 4.5% y/y from 4.2% in September.
- Comments from MPC members over the last week (A.Glapinski, L.Hardt, K.Zubelewicz, E.Gatnar, J.Kropiwnicki, E.Lon) point that a hike in December is very likely. The target level for the reference rate might be lower than expected by the financial market, though (in our view 2-3%).
- According to RMF FM, prof. A.Glapinski will likely be appointed by President A.Duda for 2nd term as the NBP’s Governor.
The week ahead:
- Negative calendar effects will likely affect the October prints from the real economy. As industrial output is concerned we are less optimistic than consensus (4.2% y/y vs. 5.4% y/y) due to the negative impact of supply bottlenecks on automotive industry. We see construction output growing by 5.0% y/y in October, with no clear signs of a rebound in investment activity yet. Retail sales growth has likely accelerated (to 6.3% y/y according to both our and consensus forecast) due to a low base resulting from the anti-epidemic restrictions in Autumn 2020.
- Business sentiment might have deteriorated in November due to the combination of supply shocks, as well as fears of the pandemic.
- M3 money supply growth inched down in October (to 8.5% y/y), as the NBP limited its asset purchases.
- Unemployment rate likely fell in October to its year-low of 5.5%.
- PPI inflation continued its upward path in October (to 10.9% y/y) driven by surging prices of energy and commodities as well as weaker PLN.
Number of the week:
- 18.171 – 7-day moving average number of new Covid-19 cases. The highest since mid-April.