What else caught our eye:
- Detailed GDP figures for 1q21 showed that not only private consumption, but also fixed investments (positive surprise, boding well for corporate loans) rose in y/y terms (+0.2% and +1.3%, respectively). Overall GDP growth was revised up to -0.9% y/y vs flash estimate at -1.2% y/y.
- Manufacturing PMIin May jumped to an all-time high of 57.2pts signalling mounting price pressures and a sharp rebound of the domestic demand (resulting from reopening of the economy in May).
The week ahead:
- Detailed CPI figures for May should confirm that the headline inflation rate rose to 4.8% y/y (flash estimate) with core inflation inching up to 4.0% y/y (PKO estimate). One should focus on signs of underlying inflationary pressure (especially prices of services).
- Labour market data for May should show effects of the reopening and low base, with faster rise in employment (PKOe: 2.5% y/y) and still double-digit rise in wages (PKOe: 10.5% y/y). This would mean acceleration in corporate wage bill growth in real terms, even despite elevated inflation.
- Balance of payments for April will show sky-high (~60% y/y) exports and imports growth rates (on base effects) and another record high CA surplus.