• Market expectations on interest rate cuts seem exaggerated: Despite brighter inflation outlook and termination of the tightening cycle we see several arguments against overly optimistic market expectations on interest rate cuts.



  • The government estimates that in 2024 app. 3.6 million people will earn the minimum wage, app. 23% of those working in the national economy. In recent years, the “scope” of the minimum wage has increased significantly. According to government’s calculations from Jan 1st the minimum wage will be equal to 54.4% of the average wage in the national economy and from July 1st to 55.2%.
  • The number of foreigners insured in Social Security Fund at the end of June amounted to 1.094 million and was by 8.1% higher than a year ago. For several months the number of insured Ukrainians has remained stable - it seems that the potential to employ them in Poland is running out. At the same time a significant increase in the number of insured foreigners from other countries was observed. In June, there were 346,000 of them, 22.2% more than a year ago.
  • CAB surplus in May turned out far better than expected reaching 1.4 bn EUR. Higher than expected export growth (3.3% y/y) was the main source of surprise. In terms of 12m rolling sum, CAB deficit stands at -0.3% GDP against -0.7% GDP after April.



  • The data to be released next week will likely confirm further disinflation – both core CPI and PPI are set to decline in June.
  • Activity data for June will still be subdued, as high inflation hinders domestic demand and external environment is still unsupportive. Consumer demand, however, is expected to rebound later in 2023, as real wage growth has likely turned positive in June, for the first time in a year.



  • 4.00 – USDPLN fell below 4.00 for the first time since Russia’s invasion on Ukraine.
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