What else caught our eye:
- Recent comments from MPC members (A.Glapinski, E.Lon, R.Sura, J.Zyzynski) suggest that majority at the rate-setting panel intends to start policy normalisation in November at the earliest.
- PPI inflation rose to 6.5% y/y in May from 5.5% y/y in April, marking the highest reading since 2012. Factory gate prices are pushed up by soaring commodities prices and growing transport costs. Brace for even higher producer inflation in the coming months.
- Registered unemployment rate in May was confirmed at 6.1% vs 6.3% in April, indicating a slightly slower decline than the usual seasonal pattern suggests. Meanwhile LFS unemployment rate went up to 4.0% in 1q21 from 3.1% in 4q21, but the data are not comparable due to methodological changes.
- M3 money supply growth decelerated to 9.0% y/y in May (vs 11.2% y/y in April). Corporate deposits rose, most likely due to the consumer spending spree after the reopening of the economy. Loans growth has once again showed signs of recovery, especially in household segment.
The week ahead:
- Flash CPI figures for June should show consumer inflation inched down, but sharply rising food prices pose a risk of upward surprise.
- Manufacturing PMI has likely continued catching up with the similar European indices in June, as both improving fundamentals (strong demand) and design of the measure (implying positive impact of supply constraints) are pushing the index up.
Number of the week:
103.2 pts – The general synthetic indicator of business sentiment as of June – the highest since October 2019.