Wszystkie
Macro picture is getting cloudy
Macro picture is getting cloudy. The 12-month rolling current account surplus fell to 0.4% of GDP. The buffer that protected the PLN from excessive weakening in 2020 and enabled the NBP to conduct low-rates policy is fading. Additionally, the combination of labour market data and expected further increase in inflation indicates a growing risk to our forecast of strong real consumption growth next year.
Can households afford NBP rate hikes?
On November 3, the MPC delivered yet another larger-than-expected interest rate hike (+75bps). We think that inflation will continue to surprise the MPC on the upside in the coming months and trigger further hikes. We do not assume, however, that rates will rise significantly above 2.00%. Our baseline scenario assumes a hike by 50bps in December and by 25bps in January. The risk however is still skewed towards a more pronounced tightening. Despite interest rate hikes, Polish households are characterised by a high capacity to withstand the increase in the debt servicing costs.
Inflation dilemma could reignite policy tightening
According to our estimates, the new NBP projection will show lower GDP growth path in the short-run and a higher CPI inflation path within the next few quarters. However, the headline inflation rate should continue to ‘converge’ to the target level towards the end of the projection horizon. CPI projection might be outdated from the very start after inflation unexpectedly skyrocketed to 6.8% y/y in October. Given the latest news, we expect the MPC to deliver 50bp hike in November.
Czy gospodarstwa domowe udźwigną podwyżki stóp NBP?
Czy gospodarstwa domowe udźwigną podwyżki stóp NBP? - Wyniki naszych projekcji pokazują, że polskie gospodarstwa domowe cechuje wysoka zdolność do poradzenia sobie ze wzrostem kosztu obsługi zadłużenia, zarówno w porównaniu z wcześniejszymi epizodami wzrostu stóp w Polsce, jak i z obecną sytuacją w innych europejskich gospodarkach.
Missing parts
Monthly economic activity indicators for Jul-Sep reveal that normalisation of GDP growth has continued in 3q21. We stick to our estimate of GDP growth in 3q21 (above 5% y/y), but the uncertainty surrounding the estimate is unexceptionally high this time due to the lack of hard data on sectors that now show the strongest recovery.
Costly recovery
We have updated our macroeconomic scenario for Poland in 2021-2022, with GDP growth at 5.4% and 5.1% and CPI inflation at 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively. We see three rate hikes in 2022 (by 25bps each) in March, July and November, with a risk tilted towards more front-loaded policy normalization.