Wszystkie
MPC waits and doesn’t see
The outcome of the MPC meeting in June was more dovish than expected by market participants (rates and QE unchanged and no hawkish elements in rhetoric) and cooled down expectations for swift start of policy normalisation. What is important, the MPC has reminded that CPI inflation running above the target, even above the target range (2.5%+/-1pp), is in line with the Monetary Policy Guidelines. Given stubbornly dovish rhetoric of the MPC, we stick to our view that the first rate hike is distant, but stronger than expected recovery and higher than predicted inflation increase probability of a move in the course of 2022.
Pieniądz cyfrowy banku centralnego
Banki centralne przyspieszają pracę nad własnym pieniądzem cyfrowym. W raporcie opisujemy zmiany, jakie mogą nas w związku z tym czekać.
Poland Macro Weekly: Lift-off
Poland has started to loosen pandemic restrictions. Booming consumer spending in the first days after reopening of malls suggest that pent-up demand will boost private consumption in 2q21 and opens space for upward revision of our GDP forecast.
To the moon!
CPI inflation rose to 4.3% y/y in April, boosted by food and fuel prices. We have to get used to elevated inflation levels in 2021. The CPI has fallen out of the NBP target range and will not return there for some (possibly quite a long) time.
What’s the score?
A two-digit expansion of industry and retailers in March allowed us to re-estimate our 1q21 GDP forecast to ‑1.0% y/y (with a positive growth rate in q/q sa terms) from -1.5% y/y. Recovery will surely gain momentum once restrictions are removed starting from late April. Strong performance of real economy in March (combined with surprisingly high CPI inflation in March) does not change our outlook for the domestic monetary policy (NBP rates are to stay unchanged for long).
The darkest hour is just before the dawn
The second wave of the pandemic in Poland in autumn has induced a “K-shaped” recovery, with industry being a bright spot and services (esp. HoReCa and entertainment) lagging behind. Trends in the real economy in early 2021 have not changed significantly. Nevertheless the third wave of the pandemic and the prolonged period of restrictions have forced us to revise our GDP growth forecast in 2021 downwards to 4.7% (from 5.1%). The growth engines identified by us a quarter ago (monetary, fiscal and trade impulses plus reduction of household savings) are still in play and will emerge in full force along with a significant easing of restrictions.